Economic concerns among Fayetteville, North Carolina area consumers are not expected to subdue holiday shopping in in 2022.  Based on forecasts from The National Retail Federation, local shoppers are projected to spend at least $1.3 billion this year. This would be 6% more than was spent in 2021.

“While consumers are feeling the pressure of inflation and higher prices, and while there is continued stratification with consumer spending and behavior among households at different income levels, consumers remain resilient and continue to engage in commerce,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “In the face of these challenges, many households will supplement spending with savings and credit to provide a cushion and result in a positive holiday season.”

The biggest challenge facing Fayetteville business owners is keeping holiday spending local. NRF expects 10-12% of purchases to happen online from retailers like Amazon and Walmart.

To lay claim to this expanding pool of holiday spending,  and keep business local, small business owners will need advertising. By, most marketing metrics, the best way to advertise is on Fayetteville radio.

Local consumers may have a gloomy feeling about economic conditions, but their spending has not tapered. This is good news for the 8,690 small business owners in the Fayetteville, North Carolina area.

According to the latest University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers, sentiment about current economic conditions remains near the all-time low. Concerns about volatile gas prices, rampant inflation, and a looming recession have driven the survey's index down 37% versus a year ago.

Despite these dim consumer sentiments, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis's July report shows that real personal consumption expenditures are pacing well above pre-Covid levels. According to Morgan Stanley research, consumers' ability to spend is being driven, in part, by a massive amount of excess savings accumulated over the course of the pandemic.

Earlier this year, based on per capita spending data from the National Retail Federation (NRF). Fayetteville consumers were forecast to spend nearly $6.7 billion at retail this year. The current level of spending suggests that shoppers are on track to hit that number.

Of course, for local business owners to successfully compete for a share of this record spending requires marketing. By most key marketing metrics, the best way to advertise is on Fayetteville radio. This is especially true among business owners who must limit the number of marketing channels that can be used because of economic restraints.

Of all media, advertising on the radio provides the greatest return on investment.

Father's Day this year is on Sunday, June 19. Based on projections from the National Retail Federation (NRF), Fayetteville, North Carolina shoppers are expected to spend $27.5 million on the dads in their life. This is on par with the record-breaking $27.7 million spent in 2021.

“Despite growing concerns about inflation, consumers plan to spend approximately the same amount as last year in celebration of Father’s Day,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Spending patterns also reflect the sentimental nature of the holiday as consumers are prioritizing unique and meaningful gifts.”

The NRF projects that nearly 60%, of all Father's Day purchases in Fayetteville, will be for special outings, clothing, gift cards, and electronics. Although most category spending will be down slightly from last year, the amount of money spent on special outings such as dinner is expected to increase by over 8%.

Here is how this large pool of Father's Day cash in Fayetteville is expected to be distributed in all retail categories.

Each week according to Nielsen, 323,000 consumers tune in to a Fayetteville, North Carolina radio station. This is significantly more adults than watch local TV stations, cable, or streaming video. It is more than browse social media. It is more than listen to streaming audio services or podcasts. It is more than read local newspapers.

There are two traits Fayetteville radio listeners have in common. First, they are very loyal to their favorites, tuning-in to, on average, only 1.8 different stations each week.

Second, and of particular importance to Fayetteville small business owners, radio listeners are returning to 'normal' at a faster rate than the general population after more than two years of pandemic.

Since the onset of the COVID-19 crisis, Nielsen has been measuring consumer sentiment in regard to normal behaviors. In a survey conducted in March of this year, 83% of adults say they are "ready to go and feel life is becoming more normal". This is up dramatically from the same time last year.

Fayetteville, NC consumers are on track to spend more than $5.9 billion at retail this year, based on projections by the National Retail Federation (NRF). Spending is expected to be 13.5% higher than last year.  

Some Fayetteville small business owners, though, are wondering if the spread of the Delta Variant may slow spending if consumers sense pressure on their own financial security. Shoppers, however, don't see it that way.

New research from Nielsen indicates that 82% of consumers believe their household finances will either remain the same or improve during the upcoming months.

The Nielsen study has another finding that Fayetteville business owners will find promising. Consumers are more likely to shop locally than they did before the onset of the pandemic, although in different ways.

In 2021, according to Nielsen, 19,543 Fayetteville, North Carolina area homeowners are expected to spend $210 million on kitchen and bathroom remodeling. This would be an increase of 16.8% increase over last year. Sales estimates are based on data from The National Kitchen & Bath Association (NKBA).

Because of the ongoing pandemic, 202,000 homeowners from Lumberton to Spring Lake are in the process of reassessing their living spaces.

According to the NKBA, homeowners cite the kitchen and bath areas as two times more important than other spaces within the home, and the kitchen particularly gained status throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, with 70% of homeowners considering it extremely important compared to 64% before the crisis.

“After such a strong year for home remodeling in 2020, some wondered if we were approaching a home improvement spending ‘cliff.’ We’re pleased to say that’s not what the kitchen and bath market is expecting in 2021,” said Bill Darcy, NKBA CEO.

“Last year, homeowners started the work of improving their living spaces with DIY projects. And this year, with early distribution of the vaccine and other measures to reduce the public health impact of the virus, we expect to see continued renovations and more projects requiring our members.”

Fayetteville, North Carolina area consumers are expected to spend upward of $5.9-billion at retail in 2021. This would be, at minimum, a 6.5% jump over 2020. The forecast is based on newly released estimates by the National Retail Federation.

“Despite the continuing health and economic challenges COVID-19 presents, we are very optimistic that healthy consumer fundamentals, pent-up demand and widespread distribution of the vaccine will generate increased economic growth, retail sales and consumer spending,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.

“From the outset of the pandemic, retailers have gone above and beyond even the most conservative safety guidelines to protect and serve their associates and consumers alike."

To capture the largest possible share of spending growth, local retailers will need to advertise. By the most crucial marketing metrics, the best best way to reach consumers is by advertising on Fayetteville radio.

There is cheerful news for small business owners from Lumberton to Dunn and every city and town in between.

Based on the latest projections from the National Retail Federation, holiday sales are expected to grow 3.6%-5.2% over 2019.  This means despite the economic ravages of the pandemic, Fayetteville area shoppers will be spending between $1.1 and $1.2 billion on gifts and other trappings of the season.

The NRF forecast is based on an economic model that takes into consideration a variety of indicators including employment, wages, consumer confidence, disposable income, consumer credit, previous retail sales and weather. NRF defines the holiday season as November 1 through December 31. Numbers forecast by NRF may differ from other organizations that define the holiday season as a longer period or include retail sectors not included by NRF, such as automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.

"Consumers have shown they are excited about the holidays and are willing to spend on gifts that lift the spirits of family and friends after such a challenging year," says NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. "We expect a strong finish to the holiday season." 

“Given the pandemic, there is uncertainty about consumers’ willingness to spend, but with the economy improving most have the ability to spend,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “Consumers have experienced a difficult year but will likely spend more than anyone would have expected just a few months ago."

There is positive news for the 8,600 small businesses in the Fayetteville, North Carolina metro area.  A majority of consumers say they are ready to start shopping again.

A lifestyle survey just released from Nielsen indicates 53% of Americans believe that despite the continuing pandemic, life is beginning to normalize, and they are likely to resume typical activities.  Nielsen refers to this majority as "Ready-To-Go".

According to the survey, Ready-To-Go consumers now perceive less risk, feel safer, and believe their cities are emerging from crisis.

The key takeaway for Fayetteville small business owners is that Ready-To-Go consumers are significantly more likely to start shopping within 30 days than the total population.  These buyers, according to Nielsen, are looking to spend on home improvement, professional services, auto parts/repair, shopping, food & dining, and travel.

To capture a meaningful share of the money Ready-To-Go consumers will be spending requires local small business owners to advertise.  By almost every metric, advertising on Fayetteville radio is the best advertising option.

There are more than 267,000 car radios in the Fayetteville area. On March 30, though, many of these devices became quarantined along with their owners. That was the day when the Governor of North Carolina shut down the state to slow the spread of COVID-19.

According to the Apple Mobility Index, the Governor's public-safety order caused traffic on Fayetteville roadways to plummet to 55% of pre-pandemic levels.

By the beginning of July, however,  the AMI indicates that traffic in Fayetteville began to exceed pre-Covid levels. The surge in mobility is due, in part, to work-from-home, furloughed, and laid-off employees returning to their workplaces.

According to Nielsen, during the week of April 30, only 39% of adults with jobs were working outside-the-home.  During the week of October 1, though, that number had expanded to 61%.

Now would be a good time for Fayetteville small business owners to consider increasing their advertising expenditures.

There are just over 8,600 small businesses in the Fayetteville, North Carolina metro area, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.  Based on some promising retail sales data, the Overall  Sentiment Index among local small business owners has improved 32.4% between April 26 and October 12 of this year.

The best news for business owners came from the Commerce Department on Friday when it reported that retail sales rose by a seasonally adjusted 1.9% in September.  This is the fifth straight month of gains.

Local retail gains are being powered by improving consumer confidence and a large pool of cash sitting in people's savings accounts.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 101.8 in September, up 17.9% from August. This means consumers are in the mood to spend. Fortunately, they have money in the bank to do so.

During lockdown, Fayetteville consumers have been postponing the purchase of major appliances.  Despite the pause in buying, however, local shoppers are still expected to spend $23 million this year on ovens, stoves, refrigerators, freezers, washing machines, dryers, and dishwashers.

Here's how appliance sales in the Fayetteville area will breakdown by category:

• Cooking: $6,400,000
• Refrigerator/Freezer: $3,900,000
• Laundry: $4,100,000
• Other: $6,000,000

Based on traditional buying patterns, at least 60% of all major appliance sales will occur between now and December.

To capture a larger share of all this spending will require local appliance dealers to advertise.

“Think you have a great product?” asks the U.S. Small Business Administration. “Unfortunately, no one’s going to know about it unless you advertise.”

The SBA goes on to say, “Advertising, if done correctly, can do wonders for your product sales, and you know what that means: more revenue and more success for your business”. 

By almost any measure, advertising on Fayetteville radio is the best choice for local appliance store owners.

Despite the pandemic, Fayetteville area consumers are expected to spend $22 million on fine jewelry this year. Based on projections from IBISWorld, here's what will be purchased:

• $9 million worth of diamonds
• $3 million worth of watches
• $2 million worth of gold
• $2 million worth of pearls and gemstones
• $4 million in other goods and services

North Carolina business owners will now have an easier time capturing a bigger share of jewelry expenditures as a monster competitive force disappears.

This week, Signet, the largest jewelry retailer in the country, announced that by December, it would be closing over 380 stores.  Signet's brands familiar to local consumers include Kay, Jared, Zales, and Piercing Pagoda.

To successfully compete for the void created by fewer Signet stores, local retailers will need to advertise, especially between now and the end of the year. This is when 63% of all fine-jewelry sales traditionally occur.

By any metric, the best way to reach local jewelry buyers is by advertising on Fayetteville radio.

At the dawn of 2020, Fayetteville small business owners were expecting the area's retail economy to expand by 4.1%. This optimism was stoked by the National Retail Federation's chief economist who said, "Consumers remain upbeat and have the confidence to spend, and the steady wage growth that has come with the strong job market is fueling their spending. The state of the consumer is very healthy."

By February, however, the country entered into a COVID-19 induced recession. Then, to slow the spread of the pandemic, on March 30, the Governor of North Carolina locked the state down. This brought the Fayetteville area's $8.1 billion retail economy to a standstill.

As stores, restaurants, and offices in the Fayetteville area begin to re-open, consumers' appetite for spending is returning. According to Nielsen, loyal radio listeners are very likely to be first in line at the cash registers.

More than 92% of Fayetteville area households own at least one vehicle. 

Pre-pandemic, 84% of workers spent, on average, 46 minutes every weekday in these cars commuting to-and-from their jobs.  

On their way to work, many of these drivers would contribute to the Fayetteville area's $8.5 billion retail economy by visiting the convenience stores, coffeehouses, auto repair centers, gas stations, daycares, grocery stores, or hundreds of other businesses they passed.

At lunchtime, these same cars would take their owners to restaurants, dentist appointments, nail appointments, barbershops, and on an infinite number of other errands.

On the weekends, these vehicles filled the parking lots of hardware stores, furniture stores, car dealers, appliance stores, bowling alleys, movie theatres, and nightclubs, 

Then on March 30, when the Governor of North Carolina shut down the state to slow the spread of COVID-19, traffic came to a standstill and so did the spending.

There are strong indications, though, that in the Fayetteville area, roads are filling up again.