COVID-19 has had a profound effect on cash register receipts in Fayetteville. Every day small business owners from Spring Lake to Hope Mills are being challenged by the pandemic induced recession.

Just yesterday, for instance, the US Commerce Department announced that April retail sales were down by 20% vs. the same month last year. This is sure to take a massive bite out of the $8.1 billion in annual consumer spending Fayetteville area businesses had been expecting in 2020.

“April was the cruelest month,” Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners, told the Wall Street Journal. "Retail spending likely bottomed out in the first week of May with spending picking up due to Mother’s Day and gradual state reopenings.

“It’s going to be less worse with each month,” said Mr. Johnson, “as people slowly come out of the foxhole and enter the mainstream of American consumerism.”

The ability of a North Carolina small business to survive past the lockdowns will depend on the steps it takes now.

WARC, a company that collaborates with more than 50 respected marketing organizations, including the Advertising Research Foundation and the Association of National Advertisers, has identified ten tactics that businesses should implement immediately. The #2 step on this list: Keep advertising if you can.

Pay-TV is struggling to survive COVID-19.

Before the onset of the pandemic, Nielsen reported that 60% of Fayetteville area households received their television programs from cable systems, telephone companies, or satellite operators.  That number, however, is plummeting.

Pay-TV providers in the Fayetteville area include AT&T TV, Dish, Spectrum, and DirecTV.

"Cord-cutting, people dropping their cable and satellite TV subscriptions, pre-dates the onset of Covid-19. But the pandemic is exaggerating the trend, creating deeper issuers for programming that relies on those services for distribution," Eric Savitz wrote last week in Barron's.  This includes non-premium services like ESPN, TBS, TNT, USA, CNN, and Discovery.

"LightShed Partners analyst Richard Greenfield counts a loss of 1.96 million subscribers to cable, satellite TV, and virtual cable services combined in the first quarter," Savitz continued. "This is the worst combined quarterly drop ever, down 6% from a year ago."

Greenfield said in an interview with Barron’s that what is especially sobering is that most of the first quarter activity pre-dated the virus. The numbers are likely to get considerably worse in the second quarter.

In January, Fayetteville small business owners were in a panic. The unemployment rate was at a record low 4.8%, and there were not enough workers to fill their open jobs. 

As of today, though, North Carolina is reporting that at least one-in-five of the state's workforce have lost their jobs for Coronavirus related reasons. Yet, many small business owners are still struggling to find employees.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "For some workers, unemployment benefits are now paying more than their old jobs did. For others, safety concerns or a lack of child care, as most schools and day-care centers remain closed, are making them hesitant to go back."

“That’s going to get in the way of any real recovery,” Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of American Action Forum and former director of the Congressional Budget Office, told WSJ.

The struggle to hire employees creates an additional threat for those Fayetteville small business owners who received loans under the SBA's Paycheck Protection Program.  

To qualify for the loan forgiveness provision of the PPP, business owners must restore its workforce to pre-Coronavirus levels. This must be accomplished within eight weeks of receiving the monies.

So, just like in January, local small business owners are under pressure to fill open jobs. Advertising on Fayetteville radio is a potent way to attract and hire the needed employees.

Facebook usage has swelled since the onset of the Covid-19. 

According to Nielsen, before the current chaos, 62% of Fayetteville area adults used Facebook each month. This was significantly fewer than were reached by local radio or television each week.

According to the New York Times, however, since the start of the Coronavirus, daily Facebook traffic has increased by 27%. This compares to 33% growth in the amount of time consumers spend listening to local radio during a similar period.

Based on the surge in Facebook consumption, North Carolina small business owners might be tempted to purchase advertising on the social media platform to augment their regular, free postings. Here are are few facts these businesses should consider before investing.

Business was booming in Fayetteville. Then it was not.

Before the chaos brought on by Coronavirus, it had been predicted, based on estimates from the National Retail Federation, Fayetteville area consumers would spend 4.1% more in 2020 than they did in 2019. On March 30, however, when North Carolina's Governor shut down the state, the expectations of growth for many small business owners were replaced with fights for survival.

As the state prepares to reopen, Fayetteville area small businesses will learn that turning the lights back on and hanging out the welcome sign might not be enough to bring even the most loyal customers back.

Some customers will not return because of personal safety concerns. Other customers may have discovered alternative sources to purchase goods and services.

More likely, though, customers will not come back because a business has lost a valued parcel of real estate: the position at the top of a customer's mind. This is the place where purchase decisions are made.

There is a way to regain top-of-mind status. First, though, it's important to understand why a business can be forgotten so quickly. 

For Fayetteville small business owners, marketing and advertising are crucial to surviving any crisis, including Coronavirus. The business literature has an abundance of case studies from depressions, recessions, natural disasters, and, yes, pandemics that affirm this existential conclusion.

Advertising, however, may seem extravagant right now to North Carolina businesses that are struggling to make rent, purchase inventory, and meet payroll. Henry Ford, though, is often quoted as saying, "Stopping advertising to save money is like stopping a clock to save time."

Therefore, as business owners from Lumberton to Dunn (and every point in between) are cinching their belts tighter-than-ever to stay alive, the dollars invested in advertising must be spent in the most effective manner possible.

During periods of uncertainty, advertising works the hardest when placed in within media that consumers trust.  During the time of COVID-19, advertising on Fayetteville radio has earned that trust among local consumers.

Since the onset of the Coronavirus crisis, consumers are not flocking into the showrooms, storefronts, offices, or dining rooms of Fayetteville small business owners. It turns out, though, social distancing has not proven to be an impediment to shopping.

North Carolina consumers are still spending money despite the chaos imposed by the pandemic, according to Gordon Borrell, CEO of Borrell & Associates. His company specializes in the collection of marketing data from business owners across the country.

"During depressions, recessions, floods, hurricane, earthquakes, fires, and, now, pandemics, commerce goes on," Mr. Borell told members of Fayetteville's small business community during a recent teleconference.

To prove his point, he shared research from IBISworld  which, indicates spending continues despite a plunge in consumer confidence.

Every week, 288,946 adult consumers tune-in to a Fayetteville radio station. That is way more than are reached by other media, including local television, newspaper, social media, or streaming audio sites like Pandora and Spotify.

A more significant number for thousands of North Carolina small business owners who advertise on Fayetteville radio is how many of these listeners stick around when their commercials come on.

A 2011 Nielsen study discovered that, on average, 93% of listeners stayed with the radio station they are tuned-to when the commercials come on. That number amazed many advertisers at the time who believed that audiences were far more likely to defect when the music stopped.

A lot has changed since 2011. Fayetteville consumers have many more media options and can instantly connect to each  with a button-push, mouse-click, screen-tap, or voice command. With all of these choices, do radio audiences still stay tuned during commercial breaks?

The chaos created in Fayetteville by the onset of Coronavirus has been a disruptive force among consumers. 

Work routines, buying habits, family life, and media consumption have all been palpably affected. These are all factors that need to be considered by small business owners who continue to advertise their goods and services during the crisis.

Before the current chaos, advertising on Fayetteville, by any metric, was the best way a local small business could advertise.

For instance, pre-Coronavirus, 2.1 million adult consumers tuned-in to a Fayetteville radio station every week. This is significantly more than watched local TV, read a newspaper, accessed social media, or streamed audio from sites like Pandora and Spotify.

New research released from Nielsen indicates that amidst the current crisis, listening to local radio remains little changed. This is great news for those North Carolina small business owners who are depending on advertising for their long-term survival.

In 'normal' times, Fayetteville consumers would be expected to rack up $54 billion in annual retail sales. Of course, since the onset of the Coronavirus crisis, nothing has been normal.

But as Gordon Borrell, CEO of Borrell Associates, explained to members of the Fayetteville area small business community via teleconference, consumers are still spending. This, it turns out, is normal.

Mr. Borrell shared research from Ibis that demonstrates during every type of crisis, including depressions, recessions, floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, fires, and, now, pandemics, consumers still spend.

The business literature contains an abundance of examples of how continuing to market and advertise during an economic crisis can help a company survive and emerge from the episode even stronger than before.

Fayetteville small business owners who do continue to advertise and market, however, should consider modifying their pre-crisis strategy.

Last week, Gordon Borrell, CEO of Borrell Associates, shared insights with Fayetteville small business owners on the value of marketing to consumers during a crisis. A video replay of the teleconference is available by clicking here.

Mr. Borrell is the CEO of Borrell Associates. His company is one of the most trusted sources of trends and forecasts for local media today.

According to Mr. Borrell, despite social distancing and economic jitters induced by the Coronavirus chaos, consumers are still spending money.

He points to research from Ibis that consumer consumption continues in almost every crisis, including depressions, recessions, floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, fires, and, now, pandemic.

In a typical week, 289,000 adult consumers tune-in to Fayetteville radio stations.  But, since the onset of the Coronavirus, the weeks have not been typical.

Before social-distancing and work-from-home orders, 197,000 Fayetteville consumers would drive to-and-from work each day. More than 97% of these commuters could be reached by radio.  

North Carolina small business owners who depend on radio advertising to market their goods and services, therefore, might be concerned that the disruption in commuting patterns could depress the amount of time consumers spend with local radio.

According to market research, however, radio listening remains an important part of the daily life of consumers. Even amid the current chaos.

Fayetteville small business owners are fighting the coronavirus battles on multiple fronts.  Their first objective is to keep their families and employees safe. Then, of course, there are the concerns of keeping their businesses healthy enough to survive current disruptions.

The business literature has an abundance of case studies showing how survival is often connected to a thoughtful communications and marketing strategy during challenging times.  

Business owners need to let North Carolina consumers know if they are still open. If their hours have changed. Or if they are providing alternative shopping methods (e.g., delivery, curbside pick-up).

Most importantly, it is imperative consumers know that a business will still be there for them when the crisis is over.

For those owners who are depending on communication to preserve their business, the best option may be to advertise on Fayetteville radio.

The top concern of every Fayetteville small business owner is the health and safety of their families and employees.  Local information and breaking news regarding the Coronavirus is available by clicking here.

Of course, a secondary concern is tending to the health of their business amid an overabundance of social and financial disruptions. 

There is one prescription that helped many Fayetteville area businesses survive the Great Depression of 1929, the economic crash of 2009, and every recession in between.  The Rx for keeping a business healthy during chaotic times is to continue advertising.

The best example of how advertising can fend off tough times was shared by The New Yorker magazine financial columnist James Surowiecki.

Fayetteville retailers spend a considerable amount of time and money marketing their small businesses on social media.  Is this effort paying off?

Each month, according to Nielsen, 219,000 Fayetteville adults use Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter. This equates to 62.9% of consumers.  This reach is rather anemic compared to local radio and TV, which attracts considerably more users in a single week than these social media platforms do over 30 days.

Among local millennials, the monthly reach of Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter is eclipsed by the weekly reach of Fayetteville radio.

The number of consumers reached by an advertising campaign, according to Nielsen, is the media consideration that has the most significant effect on increasing sales.