Fayetteville area shoppers are expected to spend over $1.5 billion during this year's November-January holiday season. This estimate is based on a forecast issued last week by Deloitte, the world's largest business accounting firm.  This spending represents a 1-1.5% increase  versus the same period last year.

How can Fayetteville small business owners best compete for a significant share of the 2020 holiday expenditures?

"Retailers who prioritize customers’ desires for a safe, efficient shopping journey will be the big winners this year," writes Sean Gundz on www.ChainstoreAge.com.

"The holiday season is always a stressful time for retailers, especially the ones that make the majority of their revenue in the short window between Thanksgiving and Christmas," says Mr. Gundz. 

"Within this window is Black Friday, which, along with other big holiday sales events, are going to look a lot different this year. Retailers must accommodate COVID-19 mandates that enable social distancing, minimize surface touching, and actually restrict foot traffic in their facilities. All while trying to optimize sales."

Mr. Gundz says there is no single way to deal with the challenges facing retailers this holiday season. He does offer five tips, though, that every Fayetteville retailer can employ.

Fayetteville area consumers are expected to spend $11.7 million on Halloween related activities in 2020, according to information from the National Retail Federation.  This would be a slight 2.3% decrease from 2019. This is proof of the holiday's strong resistance to the pressures of a pandemic economy.

Based on data from the NRF's annual survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics, more than 203,000 Fayetteville adults plan to participate in Halloween-related activities. Among those celebrants, safe at-home activities ranked highest: 53 percent plan to decorate their homes, 46 percent plan to carve a pumpkin, and 18 percent will dress up their pet.

“Consumers continue to place importance on celebrating our traditional holidays, even if by untraditional standards,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Retailers are prepared to meet the increased demand for seasonal décor, costumes, and other items that allow families the opportunity to observe Halloween safely.”

To earn a large share of Halloween spending in 2020, Fayetteville small business owner will need to advertise to let consumers know their stores are open, stocked, and ready. By any metric, advertising on Fayetteville radio is the best way to reach holiday shoppers.

There are more than 267,000 vehicles registered in the Fayetteville area. Many need new windshield wipers, shocks, struts, brakes, air filters, ignition coils, and the hundreds of other items that fill the shelves of local auto part dealers.

Despite the pandemic induced slowdown, business at auto parts stores has grown nearly 13% since February, according to the US Census Bureau.

This explosive growth in auto parts sales directly relates to the  average age of cars on Fayetteville's roads.

"Per the latest study from IHS Markit, the current combined average age of vehicles has hit a record of 11.9 years," Rimmi Singhi wrote this week on NASDAQ.com. "The aging vehicles are a boon to auto parts, replacement, and repair companies. In a bid to ensure long-term functioning of the aging vehicle population, customers are making investments to replace faulty vehicle parts and components."

Also contributing to the rapid aging of cars on the road is the current demand for used versus new vehicles. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for used cars is 25% higher in August than it was during the same month last year.

There are approximately 66,000 households in the Fayetteville area with existing mortgages, according to the US Census Bureau, American Housing Survey. The median amount owed on these homes is $127,000.

Yesterday, there was extraordinary news for many of these borrowers and for Fayetteville area banks, credit unions, and mortgage companies

According to The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac), mortgage rates have hit an all-time low of 2.86%.

On September 4, the political advertising window opened on Fayetteville radio and area TV stations.  This is a 60 day period leading up to a general election when broadcast stations licensed by the Federal Communication Commission are obligated to offer candidates for national office the opportunity to buy commercials at the lowest unit rate (LUR).

For example, if a high-frequency advertiser like McDonald's earns the lowest rates on a particular Fayetteville radio station during morning drive-time, then any candidate for federal office must, during the 60-day political window, be offered the same rate for morning drive time on that station, regardless of frequency.

If, however, the McDonald's rate is contingent on the radio station's ability to pre-empt commercials without notice, then qualified candidates must agree to identical terms to receive the same rate.

To facilitate the purchase of commercials on Fayetteville radio, stations will supply candidates with a political rate-card.  This card will show the LUR by time of day and by preemption parameters.

Here are other important facts about political advertising on Fayetteville radio.

Advertising on local television and cable is becoming less attractive to Fayetteville business owners as viewers rapidly defect to alternative video entertainment sources including, Netflix, YouTube, Hulu, Amazon and Disney+.

Collectively these streaming services are referred to as Over-The-Top Television (OTT) and Connected-TV (CTV). Viewers can only access this OTT and CTV content via smartphone, tablets, computers, smart-TVs, Amazon Fire Sticks, and Roku Sticks, Nielsen reports that 94.2% of Fayetteville adults own at least one these devices. Furthermore, they are using them.

According to Nielsen, OTT and CTV networks now reaches 42.3% of all Fayetteville consumers every week.

New data from the US Census Bureau has optimistic news for Fayetteville companies that sell business-to-business.

There are approximately 6000 businesses in the Cumberland and Robeson County, according to the Census Bureau. Indeed, many of these businesses have suffered since the onset of the Coronavirus, especially in April.

Census information is now showing positive indicators that the fortunes of area companies are improving. This includes those with 500 or fewer employees. These small businesses account for 88% of all Fayetteville area firms.

During the week of April 26, 36% of North Carolina small businesses reported temporary closures.  By July 1, the number dropped to 11%

Also, during that same week, 68% of North Carolina small business owners were reporting decreases in revenue versus the prior week.  By the end of June, that number fell by more than half.

In both June and July of this year, national data shows all retail and food services spending significantly outperformed the prior year by between two and three percent.

As the business climate improves in the Fayetteville area, the fortunes of B2B companies will accelerate as well. These include those businesses that sell office supplies, restaurant supplies, cleaning services, legal services, accounting services, transportation services, banking services, technology, and commercial real estate.

Before COVID-19, most listening to Fayetteville radio happened outside the home. Consumers were tuning-in to their favorite stations from the car on the way to their job. Then, they tuned-in when they arrived at work. They listened again during the commute back home.

Nielsen recently surveyed consumers who worked from home before and during the novel coronavirus outbreak. The results show, as of June, 66% of respondents now work from home full-time as a consequence of the pandemic.

As consumers are compelled to work from their houses and curtail their commutes, the share of at-home listening to Fayetteville radio has grown by 27%, according to Nielsen.

Fayetteville radio reaches more area adults every week than any other medium. During a typical seven-day period, according to Nielsen, 327,293 local consumers tune-in to their favorite AM and FM stations. This is significantly more than those who watch broadcast television, subscribe to pay-TV, browse social media, read a newspaper, or stream music from Pandora and Spotify.

Radio's omnipresence in the life of Fayetteville consumers is remarkable considering today is the medium's 100th birthday.

Despite all of the media options available for small business owners to market their goods and services, advertising on Fayetteville radio is still the best way to reach local consumers.

Adult consumers are spending 741 minutes per day consuming electronic media, according to a new study by Nielsen.  This is 7.8% more time than they spent last year and 11.2% more than in 2018.

The typical daily media diet consists of radio, live TV, time-shifted TV, DVD/Blue-ray devices, game consoles, internet-connected devices, as well as internet via computers, smartphone apps, and tablet apps.

According to Nielsen, despite all of these media options, local radio reaches the most consumers every week.

There is good news for Fayetteville retailers and restaurants.

As a result of the pandemic, one-third of consumers indicate they will pay a premium for local brands and products, according to a recent study by Ernst & Young

However, before consumers will buy from a local business in Raeford, Lumberton, Spring Lake, or any town in-between, they must know they can do so without risking their health.

Advertising is the only practical way to let Fayetteville area shoppers and diners know about the precautions and practices your small business has taken to reduce potential health threats.

During the Spring of this year, 243,400 adult radio-listeners spent 1.96 hours per day listening to their favorite Fayetteville stations, according to Nielsen. Although local consumers had spent fewer minutes listening at the onset of the pandemic, the current time tuned-in remains little change compared to a year ago.

Some advertising experts had predicted that as consumers spent more time at home because of COVID-19 concerns, the hours devoted to radio listening would decrease. That, however, was not the case.

In Spring of 2019, according to Nielsen, 32.1% of radio listening occurred at home. During July of this year, in-home listening jumped to 41%. Despite the reduction in out-of-home activities, though, consumers still spent the exact amount of time listening to Fayetteville radio.

More than one-third of Fayetteville area households are 'cord-cutters' or 'cord-nevers'. This means, they have fired their cable or satellite television providers or never subscribed at all. Instead, these consumers are choosing to find their video entertainment elsewhere.

The number of local homes that subscribe to pay-TV services began plummeting in 2013. New technologies has allowed viewers to bypass cable and satellite for more compelling content at lower prices. These cord-cutters now depend on services like Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, and Amazon Prime to fill their multiple screens.

For many years, North Carolina small business owners have been investing a significant portion of their advertising budgets into cable-TV.  The medium had proven to be a low-cost, high-reach alternative to buying commercial on over-the-air television stations. 

Now, because of cord-cutting, there are 121,000 adult consumers with unconnected TVs. This profoundly diminishes the value proposition of advertising with local cable systems.

There is a powerful and affordable solution, however, for small business owners to reach both the diminishing cable audience and the expanding number of cord-cutters.

Based on projections from the National Retail Federation, Fayetteville area parents are expected to spend $46 million to equip K-12 kids for the upcoming school year. If so, then this shopping spree will be 29% bigger than last year's and the biggest take since 2012.

“By any measure, this is an unprecedented year with great uncertainty, including how students will get their education this fall whether they are in kindergarten or college,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay says.

“Most parents don’t know whether their children will be sitting in a classroom or in front of a computer in the dining room, or a combination of the two. But they do know the value of an education and are navigating uncertainty and unknowns so that students are prepared."

Along with pencils, paper, pens, and knapsacks, the NRF survey says 63 percent of K-12 families expect to buy computers and other electronics this year, up from 54% last year, and they expect to spend more at an average $274.44, up from $203.44 last year. The $71 difference accounts for the largest share of the overall increase in average spending of almost $93.

Also, because many parents are unsure if learning will take place at school or at home, back-to-school spending this year is expected to include home furnishings such as desks, chairs, and lamps.

To claim a meaningful share of this year's booming back-to-school economy, local retailers will need to advertise to let parents know that their stores are open, it is safe to shop, and the needed supplies are in stock.

By any metric, the best way to reach these parents is on Fayetteville radio.

Car radios came to Fayetteville in June of 1930. For just $120, about $1200 in present dollars, local drivers could install these early mobile devices into their Fords, Studebakers, Packards, and DeSotos, 

The first car radios were built by the Galvin Manufacturing Company of Chicago. They named their invention, and eventually their company, Motorola.

Today, more than 267,000 car radios fill ears of area drivers with music, news, sports, and information. As a result, local radio reaches more consumers than all other media.

In a typical pre-COVID-19 week, according to Nielsen, 95% of adult consumers would tune-in to a Fayetteville radio station. This is significantly more than were reached by local TV, cable, social media, newspaper, or streaming media sites Pandora and Spotify.