There is cheerful news for small business owners from Lumberton to Dunn and every city and town in between.

Based on the latest projections from the National Retail Federation, holiday sales are expected to grow 3.6%-5.2% over 2019.  This means despite the economic ravages of the pandemic, Fayetteville area shoppers will be spending between $1.1 and $1.2 billion on gifts and other trappings of the season.

The NRF forecast is based on an economic model that takes into consideration a variety of indicators including employment, wages, consumer confidence, disposable income, consumer credit, previous retail sales and weather. NRF defines the holiday season as November 1 through December 31. Numbers forecast by NRF may differ from other organizations that define the holiday season as a longer period or include retail sectors not included by NRF, such as automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.

"Consumers have shown they are excited about the holidays and are willing to spend on gifts that lift the spirits of family and friends after such a challenging year," says NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. "We expect a strong finish to the holiday season." 

“Given the pandemic, there is uncertainty about consumers’ willingness to spend, but with the economy improving most have the ability to spend,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “Consumers have experienced a difficult year but will likely spend more than anyone would have expected just a few months ago."

Every week, according to Nielsen, significantly more consumers are reached by local radio than by Fayetteville area TV options.

For Fayetteville small business owners whose marketing budgets have been ravaged by the pandemic, though, the question is which of these media can provide the best return for their advertising investments. An ROI study conducted by Nielsen and commissioned by Cumulus Media | Westwood One provides a conclusive answer.

Between April 30 and May 27 of this year, Nielsen analyzed the sales results of a major retailer who conducted an advertising campaign on both radio and television during that period.  

Using  their Portable People Meter panel of 80,000 consumers, Nielsen measured the purchase behavior of consumers who were exposed to the advertiser's commercials on both radio and television. To learn more about the methodology, click here.

The result of the study indicates that the money invested in radio advertising had a much stronger return than the money spent on TV.

Here are the key findings of the ROI study:

Advertising on local television and cable is becoming less attractive to Fayetteville business owners as viewers rapidly defect to alternative video entertainment sources including, Netflix, YouTube, Hulu, Amazon and Disney+.

Collectively these streaming services are referred to as Over-The-Top Television (OTT) and Connected-TV (CTV). Viewers can only access this OTT and CTV content via smartphone, tablets, computers, smart-TVs, Amazon Fire Sticks, and Roku Sticks, Nielsen reports that 94.2% of Fayetteville adults own at least one these devices. Furthermore, they are using them.

According to Nielsen, OTT and CTV networks now reaches 42.3% of all Fayetteville consumers every week.

Type "Fayetteville REAL ESTATE AGENTS" into Google. In slightly over a half-second, the search will deliver 5,080,000 results. Similar searches for Hope Mills, Dunn, Lumberton, Spring Lake, or Ft. Bragg produce a proportional number of returns.

Despite the economic hardships imposed by the Coronavirus crisis on North Carolina consumers, the demand for real estate is booming. 

The Wall Street Journal published a trend yesterday indicating that mortgage applications for purchase a home have achieved levels equal to last year.

According to redfin.com, home buying demand is 16.5% higher now than it was pre-COVID-19 on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Redfin attributes this explosive growth in real estate shoppers to two factors, including record-low mortgage rates. The other primary driver is a migration trend from expensive metropolitan areas as buyers hunt for more space at lower prices.

To capture a larger share of the robust market, local real estate agents need to stand apart from the millions of Google results.  Advertising on Fayetteville radio will help accomplish this.  Here's why.

Pay-TV is struggling to survive COVID-19.

Before the onset of the pandemic, Nielsen reported that 60% of Fayetteville area households received their television programs from cable systems, telephone companies, or satellite operators.  That number, however, is plummeting.

Pay-TV providers in the Fayetteville area include AT&T TV, Dish, Spectrum, and DirecTV.

"Cord-cutting, people dropping their cable and satellite TV subscriptions, pre-dates the onset of Covid-19. But the pandemic is exaggerating the trend, creating deeper issuers for programming that relies on those services for distribution," Eric Savitz wrote last week in Barron's.  This includes non-premium services like ESPN, TBS, TNT, USA, CNN, and Discovery.

"LightShed Partners analyst Richard Greenfield counts a loss of 1.96 million subscribers to cable, satellite TV, and virtual cable services combined in the first quarter," Savitz continued. "This is the worst combined quarterly drop ever, down 6% from a year ago."

Greenfield said in an interview with Barron’s that what is especially sobering is that most of the first quarter activity pre-dated the virus. The numbers are likely to get considerably worse in the second quarter.

Every week, 288,946 adult consumers tune-in to a Fayetteville radio station. That is way more than are reached by other media, including local television, newspaper, social media, or streaming audio sites like Pandora and Spotify.

A more significant number for thousands of North Carolina small business owners who advertise on Fayetteville radio is how many of these listeners stick around when their commercials come on.

A 2011 Nielsen study discovered that, on average, 93% of listeners stayed with the radio station they are tuned-to when the commercials come on. That number amazed many advertisers at the time who believed that audiences were far more likely to defect when the music stopped.

A lot has changed since 2011. Fayetteville consumers have many more media options and can instantly connect to each  with a button-push, mouse-click, screen-tap, or voice command. With all of these choices, do radio audiences still stay tuned during commercial breaks?

The chaos created in Fayetteville by the onset of Coronavirus has been a disruptive force among consumers. 

Work routines, buying habits, family life, and media consumption have all been palpably affected. These are all factors that need to be considered by small business owners who continue to advertise their goods and services during the crisis.

Before the current chaos, advertising on Fayetteville, by any metric, was the best way a local small business could advertise.

For instance, pre-Coronavirus, 2.1 million adult consumers tuned-in to a Fayetteville radio station every week. This is significantly more than watched local TV, read a newspaper, accessed social media, or streamed audio from sites like Pandora and Spotify.

New research released from Nielsen indicates that amidst the current crisis, listening to local radio remains little changed. This is great news for those North Carolina small business owners who are depending on advertising for their long-term survival.

Fayetteville small business owners are fighting the coronavirus battles on multiple fronts.  Their first objective is to keep their families and employees safe. Then, of course, there are the concerns of keeping their businesses healthy enough to survive current disruptions.

The business literature has an abundance of case studies showing how survival is often connected to a thoughtful communications and marketing strategy during challenging times.  

Business owners need to let North Carolina consumers know if they are still open. If their hours have changed. Or if they are providing alternative shopping methods (e.g., delivery, curbside pick-up).

Most importantly, it is imperative consumers know that a business will still be there for them when the crisis is over.

For those owners who are depending on communication to preserve their business, the best option may be to advertise on Fayetteville radio.

Fayetteville consumers spent more than $8.5 billion with retailers last year. The National Retail Federation forecasts 4.1% more will be spent this year.

Who are the shoppers that will be spending all this money?

According to Nielsen, 37.3% of retail dollars are spent by Fayetteville area consumers over the age of 50. This may surprise many small business owners because older consumers comprise only 29% of the area's adult population.

These older consumers account for the largest share of spending in almost every retail category. This includes furniture, cars, pet supplies, fast food, and electronics.

To earn a share of these massive dollars spent by these older consumers requires Fayetteville small business owners to advertise.

Retailers in the Fayetteville area rang-up $8,527,802,000 in retail sales last year, according to Nielsen. But wait. It's about to get better.

The National Retail Federation forecasts that in 2020, sales will increase by as much as 4.1%. This will create another $349 million for local small business owners.  

“The economy is growing at a more modest pace, but the underlying economic fundamentals remain in place and are positive,” stated NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz. “Consumers remain upbeat and have the confidence to spend, and the steady wage growth that has come with the strong job market is fueling their spending. The state of the consumer is very healthy.

To claim a fair share of this enlarged pool of spending will require Fayetteville small business owners to advertise.

“Think you have a great product?” asks the U.S. Small Business Administration. “Unfortunately, no one’s going to know about it unless you advertise.”  

There is alarming news for small business owners who advertise on Fayetteville area television stations: broadcast TV viewers are disappearing at a rapid pace.

Nielsen reports that halfway through the first quarter of this year, the number of people using television has dropped 7.5%. This compares to -6.3% in the fourth quarter of 2019, and -7.0% a year ago,

"If the trend holds, it would represent the largest quarterly decline for TV viewership in our data set," explains UBS analyst John C. Hodulikadding. "Trends have worsened across most age demos with persons 25-34 now falling -17% vs. low double-digit declines throughout 2019. The persons 55+ demo continues to trend down -2%, similar to 2019 (the first year of declining ratings for the demo)."

Radio listenership, on the other hand, has remained quite stable, according to Nielsen. Since 1970, the medium has reached more than 9-in-10 consumers every week.

How quickly the millennials have grown up.

According to Nielsen, 71% of all Fayetteville area parents with children under the age of 18 are millennials.  

From the time their kids are born until they reach they are 17, these young parents will, spend, on average, $233,000 per child. This does not include the cost of college.

Currently, there are 114,779 children under the age of 18 living in the Fayetteville metro area. That means the local parenting economy is worth upwards of $26 billion. These dollars are being spent, among other things, on diapers, daycare, transportation, toys, education, electronics, clothing, and health care.

For local small business owners interested in competing for a substantial portion of this multi-billion dollar pool of parental cash, they must advertise to millennial moms and dads. By almost any measurement, advertising on Fayetteville radio is the best way to reach this audience.

As Valentine's Day sales begin to dwindle, that's when Fayetteville small business owners start thinking about Mom.

Mother's Day, which happens on the second Sunday of May, is second only to Christmas in terms of holiday spending. Last year, Fayetteville consumers spent more than $34-million celebrating the women in their lives. That number is expected to grow again in 2020.

To claim a significant share of this Mother's Day cash, local retailers and restaurants will need to advertise.  By almost every key metric, advertising on Fayetteville radio is the best choice.

Low unemployment, a boom in housing starts, and confident consumers are propelling robust sales for Fayetteville furniture stores.

In 2019, local consumers in the Fayetteville area spent $173 million on furniture and home furnishing. This number is expected to grow.

Based on estimates developed by Furniture Today’s Strategic Insights team and Easy Analytic Software Inc. (EASI), the total furniture and bedding market is projected to expand by more than 22% by 2024.

If a Fayetteville small business owner who sells furniture, furnishings, or home decor would like to grab a larger share of this expanding market, then advertising is necessary.  By almost every key metric, advertising on local radio is a sound marketing investment.